Sources and Methodology

This site combines current conflict reporting with structural data from major international institutions. It explicitly separates verified observations, analytical assumptions, and forward-looking forecasts.

Analytical Methodology

Core Framework

Multi-domain model: military, political, economic, cyber, and leadership behavior.
Horizon: 30-90 days for near-term forecasts; 6-24 months for end-state scenarios.
Scenario method: baseline, escalation, and tail-risk branches.
Confidence scoring based on source quality, corroboration depth, and model stability.

Probability Method

Probabilities are conditional estimates, not certainties.
Weights reflect trigger frequency, actor incentives, and historical analogs.
Distribution updates should follow major military, political, or maritime inflection points.
Tail risks use low-probability/high-impact framing with independent trigger monitoring.

Definitions Used

Term	Definition in This Analysis
Verified Fact	Corroborated by at least two credible public sources or one authoritative institutional source.
Assumption	Model input used when direct confirmation is incomplete or unavailable.
Forecast	Forward estimate based on current evidence and explicit assumptions.
Escalation Indicator	Observable signal that a scenario branch is becoming more likely.
Confidence Level	Assessment of estimate reliability, not estimate severity.

Major Source Categories and Direct Links

Category	Institution / Source	Link	Used For
Current conflict reporting	Associated Press	https://apnews.com/	Event chronology, casualty and strike reporting, diplomatic updates.
Current conflict reporting	UN News / UN Geneva	https://news.un.org/	U.N. statements, emergency-session context, humanitarian framing.
Wire service reference	Reuters Middle East	https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/	Ongoing regional wire updates and confirmation checks.
Energy chokepoint baseline	U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)	https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61545	Hormuz share of global petroleum and LNG transit.
Energy market outlook	International Energy Agency (IEA)	https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-february-2026	Oil supply-demand context and volatility framing.
Macroeconomic baseline	International Monetary Fund (IMF)	https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO	Inflation/growth risk channels and policy tradeoff context.
Military spending and force context	SIPRI	https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex	Defense spending and strategic balance context.
Nuclear safeguards context	IAEA	https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-289-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-iran	Nuclear facility status and radiological risk statements.
Defense and policy background	Congressional Research Service (CRS)	https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44017	Iran military and institutional structure context.
Strategic analysis	Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)	https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/confrontation-between-united-states-and-iran	Conflict tracker framing and policy context.
Strategic analysis	RAND	https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2025/08/us-strikes-on-iran-7-policy-lessons-from-ukraine.html	Escalation and policy implications.
Strategic analysis	Brookings	https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-an-israeli-strike-on-iran-could-mean-for-the-middle-east/	Regional consequences and second-order effects.
Cyber threat context	CISA Advisory AA25-163A	https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/cybersecurity-advisories/aa25-163a	Iranian cyber threat behavior and defensive recommendations.

Limitations and Updating Rules

Open-source wartime reporting can contain lag, bias, and contradictory claims.
Casualty and damage figures should be treated as provisional unless independently confirmed.
Probabilities are sensitive to trigger events (leadership casualties, maritime incidents, cyber shocks).
Update cadence recommended: daily during active strike cycles, weekly otherwise.

Key Takeaways

The analysis uses institution-led baselines plus multi-source conflict reporting.
Uncertainty is explicitly managed through assumptions and confidence labeling.
Most major forecast errors will likely come from surprise escalation events, not trend misreads.

Indicators to Watch

Consistency of cross-source reporting on strike location and impact.
IAEA and U.N. updates on nuclear and humanitarian conditions.
EIA/IEA updates on physical energy flow disruptions.
CISA and national CERT advisories indicating coordinated cyber escalation.

Confidence Level

Medium

Confidence is medium overall because strategic channels are clear while event-level reporting remains fluid.