Current War Situation

This dashboard summarizes the first phase of the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran after the opening strikes reported on February 28, 2026. It separates what is currently verified from model assumptions and near-term forecasts.

Analytical frame: 30-90 day horizon. This is a living assessment and should be refreshed as new reporting arrives.

Operational Picture (First 96 Hours)

Dimension	Status	Strategic Meaning
Air and missile campaign	U.S. and Israeli strikes hit multiple Iranian sites, including military and nuclear-linked targets.	Intent appears to be rapid degradation of command, air defense, and strategic deterrence nodes.
Iranian retaliation	Missile and drone attacks extended to Israeli and Gulf-state targets, with reported casualties.	Iran signaled horizontal escalation capacity beyond direct bilateral exchange.
Maritime stress	Shipping disruptions and insurance repricing accelerated around Gulf transit routes.	Energy and trade channels are now the fastest global transmission mechanism for the war.
Diplomatic environment	U.N. emergency sessions began quickly, but no consolidated enforcement pathway has emerged.	Diplomacy is active but fragmented; coercive signaling currently dominates political messaging.

Facts, Assumptions, Forecasts

Verified Facts

By February 28, 2026, coordinated U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran were reported by AP and U.N.-linked briefings.
Iran initiated retaliatory missile and drone attacks across multiple locations, including Gulf-state areas.
The U.N. Security Council moved into emergency session within 24 hours.
Oil and shipping-risk channels reacted immediately, with price and risk-premium spikes.

Working Assumptions

No side currently seeks nuclear use; strategic goals remain conventional and coercive.
Both coalitions retain reserve strike capacity for at least several weeks.
Regional partners will attempt calibrated participation, not formal declaration of broad war.
Backchannel diplomacy (U.S.-Gulf-EU) continues even during kinetic phases.

Near-Term Forecasts (30-90 Days)

45% Controlled but recurring strike cycle with periodic pauses.
30% Proxy-front expansion in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Red Sea corridors.
15% Major Gulf maritime clash forcing partial transit shutdown.
10% Stabilization via negotiated deconfliction framework.

Timeline of the First Week of War

Date	Event	Impact	Status
February 28, 2026	Opening U.S.-Israel strike wave on Iran. U.N. and wire reporting confirm high-intensity start.	War threshold crossed; immediate escalation pressure on regional actors.	Verified
March 1, 2026	Iranian retaliatory missile and drone barrages reported; U.N. emergency diplomacy intensifies.	Conflict broadens from direct exchange to multi-front signaling.	Verified
March 2, 2026	Strikes and counter-strikes continue; civilian casualty reporting rises and infrastructure damage widens.	Political room for compromise narrows as public pressure hardens.	Verified
March 3, 2026	Regional targeting extends to Gulf state nodes; maritime risk signals increase.	Energy security becomes central to international intervention efforts.	Verified
March 4-6, 2026	Likely continued strike exchange with attempts at limited diplomatic channeling.	Risk of miscalculation remains elevated during attempted "pause windows."	Forecast

Initial Market Reaction Channels

Channel	Observed Direction	Mechanism	Watch Signal
Crude oil benchmarks	Upward shock	Hormuz transit risk and precautionary buying.	Sustained elevation beyond panic week.
LNG and shipping rates	Higher volatility	Insurance repricing plus route uncertainty.	War-risk premiums for Gulf transit.
Equities	Risk-off rotation	Growth sectors sold; defense and energy outperform.	Breadth deterioration across major indices.
Safe-haven assets	Bid support	Flight-to-safety behavior under escalation uncertainty.	Gold and reserve-currency demand persistence.

Key Takeaways

The conflict has moved beyond a single strike event into an active regional war environment.
Energy, shipping, and domestic political responses are now primary escalation multipliers.
The next 7-14 days are likely to determine whether this remains a contained campaign or expands to Gulf-wide conflict.

Indicators to Watch

Rate of missile/drone launches per 24-hour cycle.
Any confirmed attempt to disrupt or mine Strait of Hormuz lanes.
U.S. and Israeli reserve force mobilization changes.
Iranian proxy activation tempo in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and maritime routes.
Formal war-powers moves in U.S. Congress and emergency sessions in U.N. bodies.

Confidence Level

Medium

High confidence in directional dynamics (continued escalation pressure, market stress). Medium confidence in exact timelines due fast-changing operational reporting and information warfare noise.