Regional Power Analysis

Iran's Proxy Network: The Axis of Resistance

Iran's decades-long investment in non-state armed groups across the Middle East — collectively known as the "Axis of Resistance" — represents its primary asymmetric force projection capability. Built as a deterrent against exactly the type of conventional military attack now underway, the proxy network has activated simultaneously across multiple theaters for the first time in its history.

Hezbollah (Lebanon)

Hezbollah remains Iran's most capable and strategically significant proxy, despite significant degradation from Israeli operations in 2024. The organization occupies a unique position as simultaneously a political party (holding seats in Lebanon's parliament), a social services provider, and a military force with capabilities exceeding many national armies.

• Rocket arsenal: Estimated 50,000-80,000 rockets and missiles remaining (reduced from pre-2024 estimates of 130,000-150,000); includes precision-guided munitions capable of striking anywhere in Israel
• Current operations: Launching 200-300 rockets daily into northern Israel; anti-tank missile attacks on IDF border positions; attempted cross-border infiltrations
• Strategic value: Forces Israel to maintain a northern front, splitting IDF resources and attention between Iran and Lebanon
• Constraints: Leadership losses in 2024 reduced organizational coherence; Lebanese public increasingly resentful of Hezbollah drawing their country into conflict; supply lines from Iran disrupted
• Israeli response: IDF expanding operations into southern Lebanon; described as the deepest US-Israeli military coordination in history

Houthi Forces / Ansar Allah (Yemen)

The Houthis have emerged as the conflict's most consequential proxy for global economic impact. Their ability to threaten maritime traffic in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb strait creates a second major chokepoint crisis beyond Hormuz.

• Anti-ship capabilities: Iranian-supplied anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM), cruise missiles, and attack drones; demonstrated ability to hit commercial vessels at ranges exceeding 200 km
• Red Sea blockade: Declared full naval blockade of Israeli-linked shipping; expanded targeting to US-flagged and US-allied vessels since the conflict began
• Saudi targeting: Resumed drone and missile strikes on Saudi infrastructure, including Ras Tanura and Jizan oil facilities
• Strategic impact: Global shipping rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10-14 days and $1M+ per voyage; compounds the Hormuz disruption
• Resilience: Years of Saudi/UAE-led coalition operations failed to neutralize Houthi capabilities; decentralized command structure resistant to decapitation strikes

Iraqi Shia Militias (Popular Mobilization Forces)

Multiple Iranian-aligned Shia militia groups in Iraq have activated against US forces, threatening the US military's logistics backbone in the region.

• Key groups: Kata'ib Hezbollah, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada
• Actions: Rocket and one-way attack drone strikes on Al Asad, Erbil, and other US facilities; roadside bombs targeting logistics convoys; mortar attacks
• Complication: Several PMF groups are formally integrated into the Iraqi security forces, creating a diplomatic nightmare — the US is being attacked by elements of an allied government's military
• Iraq's position: The Iraqi government is caught between its security partnership with the US and the domestic political power of Iran-aligned factions; Prime Minister facing impossible balancing act

Hamas and Palestinian Groups

Hamas, severely degraded after the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict, has limited operational capacity but remains symbolically significant:

• Military capacity: Severely reduced; limited rocket fire from remaining stocks; unable to mount significant offensive operations
• Propaganda value: Hamas frames the conflict as part of a broader struggle for Palestinian liberation; social media amplification significant
• West Bank: Palestinian Authority maintaining fragile stability; fear of third intifada if conflict expands or images of Iranian civilian casualties spread

Gulf State Vulnerabilities

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states find themselves in the most precarious position of the conflict — geographically exposed, involuntarily drawn in, and lacking the independent military capacity to ensure their own defense.

Saudi Arabia: The Complex Calculus

Saudi Arabia's position illustrates the paradox facing regional powers: Riyadh has long viewed Iran as its primary strategic adversary and has worked to contain Iranian influence, yet the manner and timing of the US-Israeli campaign creates more problems than it solves for Saudi strategic interests.

What Saudi Arabia Wants

• Iranian military capabilities permanently reduced — especially ballistic missiles that can reach Saudi oil infrastructure
• Iranian proxy network weakened — particularly Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah's influence in Lebanon
• Iranian nuclear program eliminated as a long-term threat to Saudi strategic position
• Continuation of Vision 2030 economic diversification without conflict-related disruption

What Saudi Arabia Fears

• Iranian regime collapse leading to a power vacuum, civil war, and refugee flows — a repeat of the Iraq/Libya/Syria pattern
• Houthi escalation targeting Saudi oil infrastructure (Ras Tanura, Abqaiq) — the 2019 attack demonstrated devastating vulnerability
• Regional instability derailing foreign investment and the massive economic transformation projects (NEOM, Riyadh development)
• Oil market chaos that, while temporarily profitable, undermines long-term demand and accelerates the global energy transition
• Shia unrest in the Eastern Province, where Saudi Arabia's oil fields are located and a significant Shia minority resides

Turkey: The Mediator's Gambit

President Erdogan has moved quickly to position Turkey as the conflict's primary mediator, proposing a "trilateral framework" involving Turkey, Iran, and the United States. Turkey's unique position makes it the only plausible mediator:

Key obstacles to Turkish mediation include the US regime change declaration (which eliminates the negotiation space Turkey needs), the absence of a functioning Iranian leadership to negotiate with, and Turkey's own complicated relationships with Kurdish groups operating in the conflict zone.

Iraq: The Fractured Battleground

Iraq's position is perhaps the most tragic — a country still recovering from decades of conflict finds itself once again a theater of operations for forces it cannot control.

• Government paralysis: The Iraqi government cannot confront Iranian-backed militias that are formally part of its security apparatus, nor can it ask the US to leave without losing its security partnership
• Sectarian fault lines: The conflict reactivates Sunni-Shia tensions that had begun to subside; Kurdish regions see opportunity in the chaos
• Sovereignty violations: Both the US and Iranian-aligned groups are conducting operations on Iraqi soil with minimal regard for Iraqi sovereignty
• Economic impact: Iraq's oil exports (primarily from Basra) are disrupted by Gulf shipping disruption; government revenue collapse threatens basic services
• Refugee concerns: If Iran's internal situation deteriorates, Iraq would face a massive refugee influx across its western border

Israel: Deepest Coordination, Expanding Front

Israel's involvement extends beyond the initial Iran strike to encompass an expanding multi-front campaign. The 2026 conflict represents the deepest US-Israeli military coordination in history, surpassing even the 1973 Yom Kippur War airlift in scope and integration.

• Iran strikes: Israel conducted concurrent operations against Iranian nuclear and missile facilities, including the use of F-35I Adir stealth fighters at extreme range
• Lebanon expansion: IDF has expanded ground operations into southern Lebanon to push Hezbollah rocket launchers beyond range of northern Israeli cities
• Syria strikes: Continued strikes on Iranian military assets and supply routes through Syria
• Golan Heights: Reinforced positions against Syrian-based group rocket fire
• Iron Dome strain: Multi-directional rocket fire (Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza) is straining Israel's layered missile defense system and depleting interceptor stocks

Great Power Positioning

Russia: Strategic Opportunism Under Constraint

Russia's response to the Iran conflict is shaped by its ongoing commitment in Ukraine, which absorbs the vast majority of its military capacity and diplomatic attention.

• Rhetorical support for Iran: Condemns US/Israeli strikes; frames conflict as US imperialism; uses UN platform for propaganda
• Military intervention ruled out: No capacity or strategic interest in direct military confrontation with the US over Iran; Russian forces in Syria are vulnerable and being quietly drawn down
• Ukraine benefit: The Iran conflict diverts US attention, intelligence assets, and potentially weapons stocks from Ukraine; Russia benefits from Western strategic overextension
• Energy leverage: As global energy markets tighten, Russia's position as Europe's alternative (if sanctioned) energy supplier improves; Russia benefits from elevated oil prices
• Arms market: Iran was a customer for Russian S-300 systems; further weapons sales to Iran during an active US conflict would cross a significant escalation threshold that Moscow is unlikely to take

China: Strategic Patience and Energy Anxiety

China's response balances several competing interests: maintaining its position as a responsible great power, protecting its massive energy supply chain, and avoiding direct confrontation with the United States.

• Energy security: China imports approximately 1.5 million barrels/day from Iran and receives roughly 50% of Iranian oil exports; Hormuz closure threatens approximately 40% of China's total oil imports from all sources
• Diplomatic positioning: China presents itself as a voice for peace and international law; has offered to mediate (though no party has accepted); uses the conflict to contrast US "unilateralism" with Chinese "multilateralism"
• Economic leverage: China holds significant US Treasury bonds and controls critical supply chains; could theoretically apply economic pressure, but the cost to China's own economy would be severe
• Taiwan calculation: Some assessments note that US military overextension in the Middle East could create an opportunity in the Taiwan Strait — but all assessments agree this is unlikely in the near term
• Strategic patience: China's long-term strategy is to let the US exhaust itself in Middle Eastern conflicts while China builds economic and technological dominance; the Iran war fits this pattern

Post-Conflict Regional Order Scenarios

All three assessments project that the 2026 conflict will fundamentally reshape the Middle Eastern geopolitical order, regardless of its military outcome. The assessments diverge on whether the result is a more stable region (Iranian threat reduced) or a more chaotic one (power vacuum, proxy proliferation, refugee flows).